OEF RESEARCH produces actionable, empirical research that speaks to how a world without war can be achieved.  Read more
Venezuelan protests 2017
Forecasting, Political Conflict, CoupCast

When Might Venezuela Finally Break? Follow the Oil.

August 7, 2017

For insights on the future of the Maduro regime, look less at Venezuela’s chaotic politics and more at the nation’s oil production.

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business operations in fragile states

Businesses: An Underappreciated Resource for Reducing Fragility

OEF Researchers explore how the private sector operates in fragile states, highlighting opportunities for engagement in an often-overlooked sector in a new blog for the Fragile States Resource Center. 
An empty soccer field in Colombia

To Achieve Peace, Colombians Must Get Beyond the Victim and Perpetrator Narrative

While Colombians signed a peace treaty in November 2016, anger and resentment remain on all sides. The government is working to reincorporate the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and other rebels into mainstream Colombian society. But can Colombians truly find peace when neither side acknowledges their role in the war—when people see others as “perpetrators” and their own people as “victims?”
Gold mining in the DR Congo

The Dodd-Frank Repeal: What it Means for Conflict Minerals

With the repeal of the Dodd-Frank act imminent, we reflect on whether consumer-driven governance initiatives, such as the Conflict Minerals Provision, have a role to play in reducing armed conflict.

Featured Activity

Forecasting Coup


The CoupCast project, led by Curtis Bell, uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.  Read more.


Terrorist Social Services Data Set

Terrorist and Insurgent Organization Social Services (TIOS)

TIOS gives researchers and practitioners the opportunity to better understand conflicts and their outcomes when terrorists, rebels, and insurgents provide social services to theirs supporters.  Read more.

Irregular Elections Dataset

Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN)

REIGN describes political conditions in every country each and every month. The dataset is updated monthly to reflect the most recent political events and changes in leadership.  Read more.

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