Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years. The implications of this pattern, sometimes called “the Long Peace,” remain highly controversial. Is this an enduring trend toward peace? Or is it temporary, representing a fluctuation within an otherwise stable system of conflict? Answering this question has remained difficult because of substantial evidence supporting both perspectives and the enormously variable nature of war. Here, advanced statistical methods are employed to examine the hypothesis of there being a trend toward peace.
These analyses suggest that the decline in war is consistent with a stable conflict generation process.
This guide was produced by the Stanley Foundation in collaboration with the Stimson Center. It reviews findings from a seven week consultation process with eighty-two professionals working in global governance.
Written byCurtis Bell, Patrick W. Keyson August 15, 2016
Few cross-national studies provide evidence of a relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict, although much of the literature claims that destabilizing effects of environmental crises can be mitigated by the right sociopolitical