Political Forecasting

We cannot eliminate the root causes of political violence without policies based on evidence and attention to long-term consequences. To this end, One Earth Future develops and promotes innovative quantitative tools to infer the causes of political events, predict them in advance, and evaluate how decisions made in the short-term are likely to affect peace and governance in the future. CoupCast is One Earth Future's flagship political forecasting model, which uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis.